DON WALTON / Lincoln Journal Star | Posted: Sunday, November 6, 2005 6:00 pm
The Senate contest grabs the spotlight in the general election, with Ben Nelson defending his seat in a state where the Republican voter registration advantage has ballooned to 179,000. Nevertheless: early advantage, Nelson.
The Republican Senate contest is a work in progress.
Describe it as in flux, a four-letter word for “beats me.”
Former Attorney General Don Stenberg enters the contest with most of the name recognition. So give him the pole position at the start of this race.
Ameritrade executive Pete Ricketts comes equipped with an obvious advantage in financial resources. If that’s combined with hard work and gangbuster TV ads, he has the opportunity to build momentum and make a late move.
Former Republican State Chairman David Kramer is first out of the blocks in terms of extensive travel and determined to build the strongest grassroots campaign organization.
That’s the same formula successfully pursued by Chuck Hagel in his 1996 Senate race and Johanns in his 1998 gubernatorial bid, although both hit the trail much earlier and fueled their grassroots effort with substantial financial support. As Kramer knows he also must do.
The winner will face Nelson. No easy task.
Nelson has established himself as something between a moderate and conservative Democrat, safely distanced from his party’s more liberal image and record.
In the Senate, Nelson supports President Bush’s positions most of the time and votes with Senate Republicans about half the time. And he comes to this contest armed with, and shielded by, kind words from the president.
Trumpets, please.
You will see and hear this often: “He is a man with whom I can work, a person who is willing to put partisanship aside to focus on what’s right for America.”
Those words were bestowed on Nelson by Bush in Omaha on Feb. 4. Pure gold. Put them in the bank.
Nelson, whose middle name ought to be Wallenda in recognition of his daring high-wire act, barely won his Senate seat in 2000, defeating Stenberg by about 15,000 votes.
But that was a presidential election year, when voter turnout is huge and Republicans gain an extra advantage in Nebraska that makes any Democratic victory particularly impressive.
Consider this: Bush won the state by 200,000 votes while Nelson, paddling furiously, successfully swam against the tide.
Although the GOP voter registration edge has grown by 34,000 since Nelson was elected, that advantage is partially mitigated by the fact that the number of non-partisan registered voters now nearly equals the disparity between Republicans and Democrats.
Stated more succinctly, the number of Democrats and independents roughly equals the number of Republicans in Nebraska.
OK, enough mumbo jumbo.
The Republican nominee will emerge from a sharply-contested primary next May with momentum, a well-honed message and campaign-tested.
But Nelson, a former two-term governor, has planted his flag in safe political ground, been attentive to Nebraska interests and projects as a member of the Senate, and mastered the advantages of incumbency. He’ll be a tough nut to crack.
Nevertheless, it will require another swim upstream.
“My guess is he must be feeling vulnerable,” said Loree Bykerk, a University of Nebraska at Omaha political Science professor. “Otherwise, why his immigration proposal, which was definitely meant to appeal to somebody other than the usual Democratic voter?”
Nelson recently proposed legislation targeted at illegal immigration. Advocates for immigrants objected to some of the senator’s rhetoric and criticized the plan for not proposing comprehensive immigration reform.
Next year’s general election battle should lure national attention and plenty of money, pleasing the ad managers at every TV station in the state.
The Republican primary battle may be largely fought on the ground, but the general election shootout will be an explosive and expensive air war.
It ends when voters go to the polls a year from today.
Reach Don Walton at 473-7248 or dwalton@journalstar.com.
The candidates
BEN NELSON (Dem.)
Nelson can count on an established reservoir of support from his two terms as governor and six years in the Senate, and will bring a moderate-to-conservative record to his re-election bid. Still up there on the high wire as the lone Democrat holding high office in a dependably Republican state, Nelson appears to offer his GOP opponents few vulnerabilities to exploit. Although Nelson lost his first Senate race in 1996 to Hagel by a wide margin, it took an exciting new candidate and a flawless campaign to defeat him.
ACHILLES HEEL: A Democrat seeking re-election in crimson country during a period of bitter partisan divide.
ACE IN HOLE: A master politician safely positioned on the issues who has amassed an impressive war chest and attracted talented campaign advisors. Nelson’s strongly competitive nature works in his favor. And he has that Bush tape.
DAVID KRAMER (Rep.)
Kramer is a former Republican state chairman with GOP friends and supporters in every county and a record of success in leading the party. He needs to outwork his opponents and forge a strong grassroots campaign in the mold of Chuck Hagel and Mike Johanns, who mounted successful ground-oriented campaigns in their first bids for statewide office.
ACHILLES HEEL: Not as well known as Don Stenberg and not able to command the financial resources available to Pete Ricketts.
ACE IN HOLE: Party contacts, determination and self-discipline. The latter two qualities are best demonstrated by the effort and will required to shed 102 pounds and get down to fighting weight.
PETE RICKETTS (Rep.)
Ricketts, a wealthy Ameritrade executive, brings considerable financial resources into the race.
His key to success will be to supplement his likely financial advantage with the hard work of campaigning and effective TV advertising. If Ricketts can match the tone-perfect introductory TV ads that propelled Hagel in 1996, he’s immediately in the hunt.
ACHILLES HEEL: A political unknown who has to be careful not to be identified primarily with money. That’s an association that sank half a dozen Nebraska Republican candidates in the past and is best avoided by relentless personal campaigning.
ACE IN HOLE: Financial resources and a barely-disguised tilt in his favor by the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
DON STENBERG (Rep.)
Stenberg won three statewide races for attorney general and was the GOP’s Senate nominee in 2000, barely losing to Ben Nelson by about 15,000 votes out of nearly 700,000 cast. His key to success is to activate and energize what has been a loyal and dependable base of support. Stenberg recently evidenced political agility in adopting a stance independent of Washington Republicans. That makes it more difficult to portray him as a rubber stamp, as opponents have done in the past.
ACHILLES HEEL: Concern among some Republicans that he cannot defeat Nelson, a factor likely to be exploited by his opponents and their supporters.
ACE IN HOLE: Name recognition and a demonstrated base of committed support, neither of which his opponents can yet claim.