The Republican gubernatorial contest dominates the primary election season and the winner emerges in May as the clear betting favorite to be elected in November.

Of course, you noticed no designation of the likely winner in the Republican gubernatorial race. Foolishness has its limits.

Armed with celebrity, name recognition, a state’s gratitude and affection for a coach who produced 25 years of football excellence capped by three button-busting national championships, Tom Osborne entered the contest as the early favorite.

But Dave Heineman, now the incumbent governor, is on the move.

Politically savvy, endorsed by Chuck Hagel, closely tied to party activists, relentlessly crisscrossing the state, Heineman is in control of the agenda and poised to present voters with a tax cut a month before they go to the polls in May.

Call this contest between a popular three-term congressman and a politically-experienced incumbent governor dynamic.

In motion.

In play.

“Originally, I would have said it was Osborne’s to lose,” says University of Nebraska at Omaha political science professor Loree Bykerk.

“I think it’s more competitive now. But if I had to put money on it, I’d still bet Osborne.”

Omaha businessman Dave Nabity is the third man in the GOP gubernatorial derby. Obviously the underdog. But a force to be reckoned with in debates and clearly capable of influencing the outcome of a close race.

Democrats have not yet fielded a candidate for governor, although Lincoln online publishing entrepreneur David Hahn is flashing on their radar screen. Those who know him say he’s imaginative, engaging, hard-working, smart.

Hahn is a political unknown, a businessman-attorney who would be stepping into his first election straight from the private sector.

Like Jim Exon in 1970.

And Bob Kerrey in 1982.

And Ben Nelson in 1990.

All three of those Democratic candidates ousted incumbent Republican governors.

But how often can lightning strike?

Next year’s Democratic challenge will be steeply uphill.

However, the odds improve if the GOP primary struggle turns negative and personal, and the winner emerges triumphant, but wounded.

The candidates

DAVE HEINEMAN (Rep.)

Heineman will have had 16 months to establish himself as governor, meet voters in travels throughout the state and build an attractive record. During coming months, Heineman needs to demonstrate leadership in setting the state on the path to a brighter economic future while fashioning a state government that is progressive and conservative at the same time.

ACHILLES HEEL: As the only candidate with a record on state issues, he will be vulnerable to attacks on decisions he makes and positions he takes.  The 2006 legislative session will be filled with land mines  as well as opportunities.

ACE IN HOLE: Ability to control the agenda, continuously travel the state as governor, position himself on the side of largely Republican suburban and Westside voters in the Omaha School District consolidation dispute and deliver a tax cut, centered on individual income tax reductions, a month before Republican voters go to the polls.

DAVE NABITY (Rep.)

Nabity is an Omaha businessman making his first bid for elective office. Positioning himself as the most conservative candidate in the race, Nabity needs to convince voters the time has come for another governor out of the private sector.

ACHILLES HEEL: Lagging name recognition in a contest with an incumbent governor and the best-known citizen of the state.

ACE IN HOLE: A newcomer with no public record to defend.  Nabity’s communication skills will win him points in gubernatorial debates.   

TOM OSBORNE (Rep.)

His three terms as western and central Nebraska’s congressman matches the number of national championships he brought to Nebraska as Husker football coach. Osborne needs to clearly demonstrate what he wants to accomplish as governor and give Republican voters a reason to change horses.

ACHILLES HEEL: Osborne’s decision to place strict limits on campaign contributions he will accept could send him into the closing weeks of the campaign with one hand tied behind his back. Expensive saturation 30-second television ads may be needed in the final weeks to respond to opposition TV ads, direct mail, statements or allegations. Also working against Osborne is his self-imposed focus on his congressional duties.

ACE IN HOLE: Voter affection, respect, gratitude, celebrity status.