With only days to go before Nebraska's primary election, new figures from the Secretary of State show a shift in the state's voter registration.
NATE JENKINS / The Associated Press | Posted: Wednesday, May 7, 2008 7:00 pm
The number of registered Democrats in the state has risen sharply this year heading into Tuesday’s primary election, giving party leaders hope they may be loosening the stronghold Republicans have had for years.
The number of Nebraska registered Democrats has increased by nearly 14,000 since the beginning of the year, according to figures from Secretary of State John Gale’s office. Meanwhile, the number of registered Republicans decreased by nearly 5,000 during the same period.
“It’s part of both a national trend and work we’ve done here in Nebraska,” including the state Democrats’ first-ever presidential caucuses held in February, said Matt Connealy, executive director of the state party.
“With their numbers down by 5,000 and us up by 14,000 … we’re getting new voters we haven’t had before, but we’re also seeing people who have realigned” and departed the Republican Party.
Republican officials brushed off the increase in registered Democrats since the first of the year as a blip caused more by an election-year oddity than any political shift in the state. Some Democrats switched to the Republican Party in 2006 so they could vote in the hotly contested primary election for the GOP nominee in the governor’s race.
Gov. Dave Heineman pulled one of the biggest upsets in Nebraska political history when he beat former Nebraska football coach Tom Osborne, a U.S. representative at the time.
“Democrats left to be in the Republican Party so they could vote in the primary and didn’t have the need to switch until now,” said Matt Miltenberger, executive director of the state Republican Party. “I don’t think we’re seeing any philosophical change among Nebraskans. The margin is still very large in the state.”
There remain roughly 178,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats in the state.
The total number of Democrats still lags behind what there was in every statewide, general election year so far this decade, with the exception of 2006.
But Democrats could draw nearer because more people could still register as such before the November election.
Overall, registration in the state so far this has increased nearly 7,300, to just more than 1.1 million registered voters. Republicans account for about 49 percent, Democrats about 33 percent, and independents about 17 percent.
Gale doesn’t expect voter turnout will match the uptick in voter registration.
He said Thursday he expects just 27 percent of registered voters will go to the polls.
Among his reasons for a low forecast:
— People’s votes for their presidential choices won’t have much practical effect, because Sen. John McCain has the Republican nomination wrapped up, and Nebraska Democrats made their presidential picks at February caucuses.
— There are few high-profile races throughout the state.
— There is a limited number of county offices on the ballots.
Turnout in recent primary elections has been up and down. The 2006 primary election drew 35 percent of registered voters, compared with 21 percent for 2004.