OSKAR GARCIA / The Associated Press | Posted: Thursday, October 26, 2006 7:00 pm
OMAHA — Hispanic voters will comprise a significant portion of Nebraska’s vote by 2030 and could swing an election, regardless of changes to U.S. immigration policy, according to a study released Friday.
Over that time, the number of eligible Hispanic voters in the state will quadruple and could be as much as 15 percent of the actual vote, said Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, of the Latino/Latin American Studies department at the University of Nebraska at Omaha.
Estimates for elections this November show roughly 40,000 Hispanic voters in Nebraska — about 3.2 percent of the state vote, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.
Thousands of people in Nebraska were among the millions nationwide who participated in immigration rallies this spring.
Almost two-thirds of Hispanics nationwide believe May’s immigration rallies could signal a new and lasting social movement, according to a Pew survey released in July.
“They were pretty powerful,” said Marcos E. Mora of the South Omaha Arts Institute, a nonprofit that specializes in teaching Hispanic art and music.
“We’re at a political time right now with elections, and I think a lot of people are scared, but they need to be educated and look at doing what is the right thing,” Mora said.
Activists who organized immigration rallies in Omaha also have organized drives to register Hispanic voters, he said.
The Hispanic population in Nebraska will triple by 2030 because of births, including those to immigrant parents, Benjamin-Alvarado said.
That significant population change would raise the share of eligible voters who are Hispanic.
Now, 47 percent of the state’s Hispanics are U.S. citizens, Benjamin-Alvarado said.
There are more than 17 million eligible Hispanic voters in the U.S., according to Pew. If Hispanics register for this election at the same rate as 2004, there would be 10 million registered Hispanic voters nationwide — 58 percent of eligible Hispanics.
In Nebraska, rising numbers of Hispanic voters that could eventually swing close elections may force candidates to change campaign strategies, Benjamin-Alvarado said.
“How those politicians respond to the resolution of those particular issues (such as immigration) is going to speak volumes to how the Latinos embrace those people, those candidates,” Benjamin-Alvarado said. “It’s going to be important, and probably sooner than later.”
Mora said the immigration issue has had other effects locally that could influence elections.
“I think the rally also sparked a lot of discrimination and prejudice,” Mora said. “I think that’s a big backlash that’s very unfortunate.”
That perception of discrimination against Mexican-Americans and Hispanics from other countries could drive Hispanic voters to become a voting bloc, Benjamin-Alvarado said.
“A lot of the anti-immigrant forces are also painting all Latinos with the same brush,” Benjamin-Alvarado said. “That has the possibility then, of beginning to bring people together who haven’t been together in the past.”