The state's revenue forecasting board, which sent the Legislature an exceptionally dismal revenue forecast last winter, will have three new members at its October meeting.

The Legislature's Executive Board, which appoints five of the nine-member forecasting board, decided it was time for new blood, committee members said.

The Executive Board reappointed two veteran members and selected three new members, including a former state senator. The names of the new members were suggested by state senators.

Two of the three rejected former members were among the most pessimistic on the board, consistently arguing for lower forecasts, including a February decision to move to a much lower forecast, a decision that frustrated many senators.

"Evidently people thought it was time for a change," said Sen. Pat Engel of South Sioux City, chairman of the Executive Board.

The state has had problems with the forecasts missing the mark, Engel said, though he acknowledged that most states overestimated their state revenue during the recent recessionary period.

The forecasting board, known formally as the state Economic Forecasting Advisory Board, is an unpaid board of economists, bankers and business owners. It provides revenue forecasts that are used for state budget decisions. Its members' cumulative predictions are based on estimates provided by the Nebraska Department of Revenue and the Legislature's Fiscal Office, using national economic models, and the board members' own judgment.

The board has been in the limelight for the past three years as the Legislature faced an economic recession and slow growth in state taxes.

The forecasting board consistently predicted higher state revenues than actually occurred, just as its predictions have been generally lower than actual revenues during economic boom periods.

Senators, already frustrated by the unreliable forecasts, were upset when the board in February dramatically reduced its previous forecast for the fiscal year that began this summer, on July 1.

The new projection was so low that, rather than make additional budget cuts, senators decided to rely on cash reserves and the hope that the economy was on the mend.

"I think there was some interest in getting a few new people on the board" and in refining the models used on the projections, said Lincoln Sen. Chris Beutler, who recommended several names for new board members

"I'd like to see if we can figure out a way to improve the models," he said.

Engel said he didn't fault the board for that forecast last winter, but that could be what drove the interest in finding new members.

The committee, using a secret ballot, selected from among 13 names, including the five veterans and eight new names submitted by several senators. In past years there has been little interest in the group, and board members were routinely reappointed.

"A lot of people were interested," Engel said.  And I think that's healthy," he said.

Two board members who consistently had gloomy predictions were not reappointed.

Fred Lockwood, a Scottsbluff accountant who has been chairman of the board since it was created in 1984, and Gary Blinn, owner of Norfolk Beverage Co., generally argued for low revenue forecasts, ones that fell below the midpoint of the estimates made by the computer-driven economic models.

Keith K. Turner, a University of Nebraska at Omaha economics professor emeritus, also was not reappointed.

Neither Lockwood nor Blinn could be reached to comment. Turner said Friday that he wanted to continue: "I'm not exactly heartbroken, but it was a pleasure to serve there, and I enjoyed it."

Predicting tax revenue became particularly difficult the past few years, he said, after the stock market problems.

Reach Nancy Hicks at 473-7250 or nhicks@journalstar.com.