Bryan Goodwin couldn’t predict the future of schooling, but he could lay out some scenarios, based on what he knew about populations, economics, technology, globalization and the like.

Goodwin, director of communications for McREL, an education research and development organization, told educators gathered Wednesday at the Excellence in Education conference that school systems must prepare for changes.

“U.S. schools, as currently designed, are not likely to meet the expectations that no child is left behind,” he said.

U.S. students are increasingly diverse, Goodwin said. In several Western states, overall minority enrollment exceeds white enrollment. At least 20 million Americans identify themselves as mixed races or say census categories don’t apply to them.

Many Hispanics move away from coastal areas and into rural America, Goodwin said, where many have children and propel growth in those areas.

Although 86 percent of Nebraska students are educated in public schools and 12 percent in private schools, the number of children educated in exempt, or home, schools is rising. Parents say they are concerned about large class sizes, low academic achievement, peer pressures and the high cost of private education.

While Nebraska does not have charter schools, those schools are growing nationwide. This year, nearly 1.1 million students are attending 3,625 of those schools.

In addition, students in one-third of school districts are enrolled in distance learning, most of them in rural schools. And more kids are enrolling in online schools.

Population trends also will affect schools, Goodwin said. More elderly people in the near future, as boomers age, will suck up tax dollars for health care, leaving fewer resources for schools. Older people also are less likely to approve school bonds.

Goodwin said generational archetypes often can affect educational trends. In those areas, history tends to repeat itself.

The hero was the archetype of people born between 1901-24, known as the G.I., or grand, generation. That generation aimed to do big things, and is remembered for such things as the Manhattan Project and the federal highway system.

The silent generation — people born between 1925 and 1942 — were more passive observers who encountered cultural revolution in middle age. No presidents came from this generation.

Baby boomers, born 1943-60, waged culture wars and held power, creating increasingly polarized politics.

Generation X’ers, 1961-84, hold a lot of the teaching positions in schools. Many were latchkey children. This generation is known for a hard edge and some social dysfunction. They prefer free agency and entrepreneurship over company loyalty, and are pragmatic, skeptical, tough and resilient.

The millennials, born beginning in 1981, will repeat the hero archetype and are just beginning to move into the workforce. Parents of this generation were protective and their schools stressed higher standards, character education, cooperative learning and community service. They are team-oriented and known as the “good kid” generation.

As technology changes, there are more choices and many of them are “on demand,” such as online shopping, online music, TiVO, ala carte cable TV programming and the ability to custom design products.

More families may want choices in their schools in the future and may favor charter schools. Generation X’ers are pragmatic and not as concerned about saving public school systems as saving their own kids, Goodwin said.

Students will be “digital natives,” who prefer parallel processes and multitasking, he said. They’ll prefer graphics before text and prefer random access. They also will thrive on gratification and frequent rewards.

“They can Google and have the whole world at their fingertips,” he said.

These things combined with economic changes and global power shifts could converge to change schools, Goodwin said.

But for change to occur, the researchers speculate, boomers may have to set aside their differences, Gen X’ers their cynicism, millennials their entitlement, and all pull together.

Reach JoAnne Young at 473-7228 or jyoung@journalstar.com.