Make no mistake, the city of Lincoln is hardly ready to give up its fight to keep the State Fair.

But political, business and academic leaders are beginning to concede that if forced to choose between a Lincoln-based fair and a University of Nebraska-Lincoln research campus, they’d give the edge to the research park.

“I don’t think anyone could disagree that in a purely economic sense, the research and development park will have a far greater impact on the community,” Mayor Chris Beutler said Thursday. “That being said, I still believe that there’s plenty of room for the fair and the research park in Lincoln.

“I hope we don’t have to make that choice.”

The promise of an estimated $1 billion economic boon from a research park over a decade — in the form of high-paying jobs, research projects and technological developments — outweighs the fair’s financial impact, Beutler and others believe.

One 2003 study put the fair’s annual impact at $28 million. It’s unclear how much Lincoln might lose should the fair leave, Beutler said.

But high hopes for a technology park to capitalize on and accelerate UNL’s thriving research programs have made the project a priority for some — even if it means they have to let the fair slip away.

“It’s kind of like picking between two pet projects,” said Tonn Ostergard, a member of 2015 Vision, a coalition of local business leaders that supports moving the fair to the Lancaster Event Center at 84th Street and Havelock to make way for a research park.

“But at the end of the day, if forced to pick, I think in the long term, Innovation Park holds the most value in terms of economic development, jobs, et cetera.”

Fonner Park in Grand Island has emerged as a leading candidate to host the state fair, with even Gov. Dave Heineman reportedly saying the fair appears headed west.

That’s not a choice supported by 2015 Vision members, who in December told lawmakers the group would chip in $6 million toward building a new fair at 84th and Havelock.

If the fair moves to Grand Island — or even if it stays near Lincoln but goes somewhere besides 84th and Havelock — 2015 Vision won’t be lending a financial hand, Ostergard said.

The group “supports Lincoln-based investment, so, no, 2015 would not in any way subsidize a move of the fair from Lincoln to Grand Island or any other location outside the city,” Ostergard said. “The mission of 2015 is all about Lincoln and Lincoln projects and Lincoln economic development.”

If the fair does move west to make way for the university’s research mission, he said, 2015 Vision members can at least take pleasure in one victory.

“We clearly feel Innovation Park is the priority. Its economic value exceeds what the State Fair can produce.”

The research park is a top project, as well, for UNL Chancellor Harvey Perlman and Prem Paul, vice chancellor of research and economic development at UNL.

Indeed, Perlman said Tuesday: “I don’t have any opinion on where the fair should be.”

Members of the State Fair Board say a move anywhere would be too costly for taxpayers and they can afford to slowly fix up the fair at its current location.

Moreover, they’ve said the university should make do with its current technology park in northwest Lincoln.

Fair board member Tam Allan couldn’t be reached for comment Thursday.

The Legislature’s Agriculture Committee hopes to send a recommendation on the fair’s future to the floor for debate before the session ends April 17.

Until the committee makes a decision, Beutler wants to keep Lincoln a viable option.

He’s pitched a $110 million plan to keep the fair here that includes $10 million from the city, $30 million from UNL and a $40 million bond issue guaranteed by the NU Foundation. The plan has been coolly received by city and university officials.

But the state is best served by a fair in Lincoln, Beutler said, citing a November consultant’s report that said an ideal fair should be within 30 miles of a population of 300,000.

“We’re certainly going to keep fighting hard in the short term,” he said.

Grand Island, meanwhile, is sharpening its pitch to lawmakers.

City officials are crunching numbers to try to reduce the estimated $45 million cost of moving the fair west, said Cindy Johnson, president of the Grand Island Chamber of Commerce.

She hopes to have new figures to the Agriculture Committee today.

Recent momentum for Grand Island has Johnson and her colleagues cautiously optimistic lawmakers will rule in their favor.

“We’ve said from the beginning Grand Island has an excellent site,” she said. “That’s where we’re putting our focus.”

Reach Melissa Lee at 473-2682 or mlee@journalstar.com.