When President Bush makes his case in Omaha today for Social Security reform, he'll be aiming his message at Ben Nelson and Monie Brownson. Nebraska's swing-vote Democratic senator and a 75-year-old Lincoln woman whose deep concerns mirror those of many older Nebraskans.

Brownson won't be at the Qwest Center for this morning's event, but she'll be listening along with 287,000 other Social Security recipients in Nebraska. That's one of every six residents of the state.

Also tuned in: 196,000 Nebraska members of AARP, which has vowed to "wage the fight of our lives" to oppose the president's plan.

Bush wants to empower younger workers to divert some of their payroll taxes from Social Security to personal investment accounts.

Sounds like a good idea to 39-year-old Lincoln attorney Steve Mossman and his family.

"My wife and I were talking about this just the other night," Mossman said.  "Jennie is 29, and in looking at the timetable for when the rubber hits the road, it pretty much told her Social Security wouldn't be there for her."

Or, Mossman said, for Molly and Martha, their two adopted daughters who are less than a year old.

Latest estimates from the Congressional Budget Office suggest the boomer-strained Social Security trust fund will be depleted in 2052, reducing scheduled benefits by 22 percent. But the Social Security board of trustees suggests that will occur a decade earlier in 2042.

The potential for financial security is much greater by allowing younger workers to allocate some of their payroll taxes to higher-yielding investment accounts, Mossman said.

Ramona Brownson, known to her friends as Monie, believes the president's plan could threaten current Social Security benefits as well as place the retirement-age income of younger workers at risk.

"It sounds like it will take a lot of money to set up the new system the way they want to," she said. "I am concerned that could affect my Social Security income because I don't know how they can do that without cutting down on benefits."

Brownson, whose husband died in 1999, says Social Security payments represent "perhaps more than half" of her income.  Although retired, she works part-time on call in human resources at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

In order to supplement her retirement income, Brownson said, she has a couple of IRAs of her own.

If younger workers want to establish personal investment accounts, she said, "we could give them tax credits" while retaining and shoring up Social Security.

Brownson said she vividly remembers the economic devastation wrought by the 1929 stock market crash and the vital role Social Security played in salvaging broken lives.

"There's no way to guarantee funds in the stock market," she warned.

Brownson is a Democrat and Mossman is a Republican, but both say their views are focused on personal and family concerns.

Bush says his plan would not affect Social Security for Americans 55 and older. And he has promised that the personal investment feature for younger Americans would  be conservatively tailored to exclude speculative investment.

The president will argue his case in an appearance before an estimated 7,000 Nebraskans in downtown Omaha at 8:30 a.m.

Nelson, Nebraska's centrist Democratic senator, will be in the audience along with the four Republican members of the state's congressional delegation.

Bush's two-day swing has been carefully crafted to place him on the ground in five red states with Democratic senators. The so-called red states supported the president in last November's election and those Democratic votes may be needed to gain Senate approval of Bush's plan.

Nelson has expressed concerns about the proposal, but remains uncommitted.

The Nebraskan created a stir in Washington Thursday when he was the only one of the Senate's 44 Democrats who did not sign a letter urging the president to avoid  sharply increasing the national debt to pay for his Social Security plan.

"We are spending enough of our kids' money," said the letter signed by 43 Democrats and independent Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont. 

Nelson is remaining consistent in "not taking a position on the president's plan until the president actually proposes a plan," said David DiMartino, the senator's spokesman.

"I'd like to know how his plan avoids cuts in benefits and avoids steep increases in the deficit," Nelson said Wednesday night following the president's State of the Union address.

Earlier in the week, Nelson told a telephone news conference he would approach Social Security reform "carefully, cautiously and conservatively."

Although he appears to be an "identified target," Nelson said, "I am not going to feel any undue pressure for the president coming."

While Bush's trip may apply the squeeze on Nelson — as well as attempt to lock in the votes of Republican members of the Nebraska congressional delegation — the Democratic senator also will feel heat from older constituents in advance of his anticipated 2006 re-election bid.

AARP, formerly known by its full title of the American Association of Retired Persons, is prepared to flex its powerful lobbying muscle in Washington and apply a full-court press in defense of Social Security.

"Taking some of the money that workers pay into the system and diverting it into newly-created private accounts would weaken Social Security and put benefits for current and future generations at risk," AARP has declared.

"The only guarantee you can count on with private accounts is that they can lose money just as fast as they can make it."

Results of an AARP poll released on Thursday demonstrate that "the more Nebraskans learn about a proposal to create private investment accounts in the Social Security program, the more likely they are to oppose it," AARP state director Connie Benjamin said.

"Nearly half of all Nebraskans believe that allowing workers to invest some Social Security payroll taxes in the stock market will weaken the program," she said.

The telephone survey of 719 Nebraskans was conducted for AARP by Woelfel Research Inc., between Jan. 27 and Feb. 1.

Meanwhile, at a Thursday news conference at the State Capitol, opponents of the president's plan released a study suggesting the average 20-year-old Nebraska resident could lose $152,000 in guaranteed Social Security benefits under the president's proposal.

The event, sponsored by the national Campaign for America's Future, featured a number of state senators and State AFL-CIO President Ken Mass. 

Voluntary personal accounts would give younger workers the opportunity to receive higher benefits than the current system can afford to pay, the White House declared.

A study by the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank that supports the president's plan, said the typical Nebraska household can expect "a piddling rate of return" averaging no more than 1.69 percent from its payroll tax investment in Social Security.

"The president is committed to keeping the promise of Social Security for today's retirees and those nearing retirement, and strengthening Social Security for our children and grandchildren," the White House stated.

In coming weeks, Nebraska's Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel will roll out a Social Security reform package of his own that includes a personal investment account option for younger Americans.

Reach Don Walton at 473-7248 or at dwalton@journalstar.com.

Social Security in Nebraska

Beneficiaries: 287,000

Total monthly benefits: $232 million

Workers covered by Social Security: 1.02 million

Average payment for retired workers: $877 per month

Average payment for disabled workers: $787 per month

(Source: Social Security Administration, 2002 figures)