Next stop, Nebraska.

That phrase is music to Nebraska ears when it applies to big-time entertainment or an expanding industry with a big payroll.

Don't look for quite as big a surge in excitement if the state is about to be targeted for an animal welfare initiative -- which, according to an agricultural law specialist at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, it is.

David Aiken sees several factors that can be expected to turn the attention of the Humane Society of the United States toward Nebraska about as quickly as it's finished with a similar mission in Ohio next year.

The factors include the relatively cheap cost of advertising, top 10 status in egg production, and the fact that Nebraska is one of about two dozen states where citizens can make law at the ballot box.

"If the Humane Society of the United States mounts a ballot effort in Nebraska," Aiken said, "I think they will be able to get it on the ballot without difficulty and they will do a lot of TV ads in the Lincoln and Omaha markets."

Furthermore, "I think they will have a strong shot at getting it passed," he added. "I think the crucial issue will be whether ag groups make a deal with them or not."

Earlier this month, Rob Robertson of the Nebraska Farm Bureau Federation warned an agricultural audience in Gering about the likelihood of a Humane Society campaign in the state.

Sought out for follow-up comment Thursday, Robertson showed little interest in elaborating. "There's nothing to it here," he said.

However, Aiken laid out a scenario in which he believes one of the nation's most prominent animal-welfare organizations will try to use a petition drive to impose the public's will on the use of egg-laying cages for chickens and perhaps also veal-calf crates and gestation crates for pregnant swine.

"They may go for all three," he said.

Or maybe they won't.

Paul Shapiro, senior director of the factory-farming campaign for the Humane Society, repeatedly denied Friday that Nebraska has moved onto its agenda for a petition campaign.

"It's just not true," Shapiro said. "It hasn't even been discussed, let alone contemplated."

He didn't soften that stance when advised of what's being said in Nebraska.

"People can speculate," he said. "All I can say is it's just not true."

What's not open to speculation is recent legislative action and citizen initiatives in the animal-welfare arena in California, Colorado, Florida, Arizona and other states.

Ag groups in Ohio are trying to make a pre-emptive strike by putting their plans for a Livestock Care Standards Board on the November 2009 ballot.

Aiken doubts that will be the last word there. "Even if that initiative passes -- and there's no reason for it not to pass -- next November (2010), the Humane Society will come back with its own ballot initiative," he said.

Don Wesely, lobbyist for the Humane Society's more than 50,000 Nebraska members, said he has talked with Shapiro and others from the national office about "state legislation to look at gestation crates and other issues."

But there are no plans for a petition drive, he said.

Nor did he think the odds would necessarily be good for a successful drive.

"Certainly, the agricultural industry is stronger here, proportionately, than almost any other state in the country."

A ballot showdown would not be Wesely's first choice for any animal-welfare adjustments.

"I think all of us are supportive of agricultural success here," he said. "So we recognize that. We also think that most farmers and those involved with agriculture would want to treat farm animals with humaneness. So we think that discussion would bear more fruit than confrontation."

Reach Art Hovey at 473-7223 or at ahovey@journalstar.com.