DON WALTON / Lincoln Journal Star ANALYSIS | Posted: Monday, November 7, 2005 6:00 pm
OK, class, what’s the high temperature going to be a year from today? Will the roller coaster carrying Mr. Dow and Mr. Jones be climbing or plunging? What will the Huskers’ record be (hint: They already will have played USC and Texas)? Drum roll, please: Who will Nebraskans elect governor and U.S. senator a year from today?
A look at voter registration figures, party identification, voting trends, early opinion polls, name recognition, incumbency advantages, financial resources, candidate strengths and weaknesses, all of that, ignores the most important factor of all.
A year of unforeseen events. The road ahead is dotted with hills and valleys, smooth meadows and thick forests, unexpected detours and high cliffs to scale. Laden with hurdles and obstacles, it’s a long and winding road.
And, from this distance, it is enshrouded in a veil of fog. Let’s look back a year ago today.
Gov. Mike Johanns was just about halfway through his second term, prepared to hand off the governorship to whomever the voters chose as his successor in 2006. A year ago, Dave Heineman was midway through his term as lieutenant governor with no plans to seek the governorship if Rep. Tom Osborne made a bid for the open seat.
Osborne already had signaled his interest in succeeding Johanns and was regarded as a virtual shoo-in. Johanns appeared to be the likely Republican challenger in the 2006 Senate race, under increasing pressure from Sen. Chuck Hagel and the GOP establishment to take on Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson.
Although Johanns never said yes, he appeared to be edging toward what would be a classic confrontation between an incumbent Democratic senator and an incumbent Republican governor in a very red state.
That all changed in a moment. When Johanns suddenly jumped ship to become U.S. secretary of agriculture, both the 2006 gubernatorial and Senate races were transformed and the fortunes of Heineman, Osborne, Nelson and others dramatically changed.
That’s a clear example of how foolish it is to try to look ahead a full year.
So let’s do it. Governor's race | Senate race