Posted: Tuesday, July 18, 2006 7:00 pm
Predicting the movie box office is a lot like handicapping horses. It’s easy to pick obvious winners, but there are some fields that are impossible to suss out before the horses get into the game. Last week was one of those easy races.
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” was coming off a record setting opening weekend and showed no signs of easing up.
That made it an obvious choice to top the box office again.
It looked like “Little Man” and “You, Me and Dupree” would battle for second, “The Devil Wears Prada” and “Superman Returns” would hang around for another week and “Cars” would continue its game run through the summer.
The movies came in exactly as expected and at about the same amounts as I picked, I said “Pirates” would come in at $60 million — it made $64. “Little Man” I picked at $20, it did $21. I was about five million short on “You, Me and Dupree” which also did $21 million. But I was in the $8 million to $10 million ballpark with the three long running pictures.
Now for this week — which looks like a 2-year-old maiden claimer….take a guess and go along for the ride.
I’ll say “Pirates” gets a third week at the top of the heap, dropping by about half again, but still making about $30 million.
That should be enough to top “Lady in the Water,” M. Night Shyalaman’s picture, which hasn’t gone over that well with sneak preview audiences. Let’s say it does $25 million.
“Clerks” is a bonafide cult picture. But how big that cult really is will be seen with “Clerks II.” I’m figuring about $20 million, good enough to hit the board in third place.
“Monster House,” the computer animated picture is the unknown factor in the field. It could have lots of early speed and battle “Pirates” for the lead. But it could fade away and I don’t hear much buzz on it. So let’s say another $20 million weekend, but a little behind “Clerks II”
Trailing among the new releases will be “My Super Ex-Girlfriend,” which looking like its a fourth pick in its field and number five for the week at $15 million.
If I was at the track looking at a race like this one, I wouldn’t wager $2. That’s the same level of confidence I have in my movie picks this week.
The horses are on the track and moving to the gate. Let’s see who wins.