The book industry is facing some serious changes.

Every industry is right now, sure, but the word market, like the music industry before it, is looking at a bona fide sea change.

Here's what's happening, and how it's affecting the Lincoln book market.

Part One: Devaluing of the book

You've probably heard about the book wars going on among Walmart, Target and Amazon's Web sites, with each monolith retailer battling for the lowest prices. The retailers bottomed out at $9 for new hardbacks, a near 70 percent drop off list price in some cases. Last month, the American Booksellers Association, a 109-year-old trade organization, requested the U.S. Department of Justice investigate what the ABA believes to be illegal predatory pricing. It's a practice, the ABA says, that will prove harmful to the industry and consumers.

Ch. 1. How is this affecting Lincoln's independent bookstores?

Owners of Lee Booksellers and Indigo Bridge Books see the lower prices as a threat to the industry. But they aren't quite sure how they will affect their stores. Or if they will.

"It could have the potential to be devastating for the industry," said Kate Janulewicz, Indigo manager. "It could affect the independents in that we may not be able to stay afloat. But it may not affect us directly because we offer titles that aren't best-sellers."

You won't find the latest Patterson or Grisham on display at Indigo. It sells less popular fiction, more literary works. The stuff that wins the Man Booker Prize.

The trick for the independents, Janulewicz said, is not to try to compete but to adapt. To corner a niche.

"You can try to fight against something that's not worth fighting against because you stand no chance, or you can continue to do what you do and do it well."

Indigo owner Kim Coleman said the store's not just about retail but community.

"We offer experience," she said. "We offer community. We offer a place to gather and share ideas."

Ch. 2. What about used bookstores?

The used bookstores won't feel the price wars so acutely. But the overall devaluing of the book has had ripples in their corner of the world, as well.

It's forced Bluestem Books to become more selective in what books they buy.

"There are a lot of books we don't carry now," said owner Scott Wendt, "because they're available for pennies on the Internet."

Publishers print huge book runs of future best-sellers. Bookstores prominently display the books. Then, a month later, publishers and retailers have moved on to something else. Now there's an excess of last month's best-seller, Wendt said, making online prices "a real race to the bottom."

"The shelf life for many books is now about the same as a loaf of bread," Wendt said. "So we buy literature now. We don't buy fiction." The store looks for the stuff that has lasting value.

The price wars won't affect Bluestem.

"They're losing $8 to $10 per book," Wendt said of the big retailers, "and that's wonderful. They can fight the battle out on the best-seller stuff. That has nothing to do with us, and we hope they all lose millions of dollars."

The used bookstores are "below the fray," he said. "The titans are fighting in the clouds, and we're down with our lemonade stands just taking nickels."

Ch. 3 How will this change the industry?

The ABA believes the price wars, if left unchecked, will lead to the end of the book industry as we know it.

This is, the organization said, "an attempt to win control of the market for hardcover best-sellers." The three retailers are "devaluing the very concept of the book" by selling titles below the price they pay publishers. The books become loss leaders, getting consumers in the door to shop for other, more profitable merchandise.

While on the surface cheaper prices seem like a good thing, the drop in value could have damaging consequences. As John Grisham's agent, David Gernart, noted in the New York Times, "If readers come to believe that the value of a new book is $10, publishing as we know it is over. If you can buy Stephen King's new novel or John Grisham's ‘Ford County' for $10, why would you buy a brilliant first novel for $25? I think we underestimate the effect to which extremely discounted best-sellers take the consumer's attention away from emerging writers."

If this continues, burgeoning authors won't be the only ones wounded. Locally owned independent bookstores, the ABA says, will no longer be able to compete. They'll keep closing, and a few retailers, whose primary product is not the book, will own the market.

Part Two: Digitization of the book.

You likely know someone who has an eBook reader. Devices like Amazon's Kindle, Sony's Reader and Barnes & Noble's Nook haven't put too big a dent in the status quo so far. But they'll soon become a much bigger part of the market. About 3 million eReaders will be sold in 2009, the market research firm Forrester projects, with 30 percent of sales taking place during the holiday season. With next year's highly anticipated release of Apple's new eReader, Forrester predicts eReader sales to balloon to 10 million in 2010.

Ch. 1. Why they're more popular than ever

The devices are getting cheaper. They boast more content, and they're getting better retail distribution.

With Microsoft and Apple slated to enter the eReader market in 2010, competition will grow more fierce, leading to higher quality, greater diversity in look and function, lower prices and more.

Also, media organizations are looking for new ways to project their content. A whole generation grew up reading digitally, and newspapers and magazines are looking for the magic box that is all things to all people -- the medium that will allow for the immediacy of the Web, the mobility of a smart phone and the feel of an actual publication. No printed media will remain unaffected by eReaders.

Ch. 2. How great a threat are they to real books?

eBooks have and certainly will continue to cut into the market.

The publishing industry is wary of eBooks and still of course wants to sell as many hardcover copies of books as possible. Take Stephen King's "Under the Dome." It was released in hardcover this week, but the publisher put the eBook on a six-week delay (for a Dec. 24 release). King said in an interview he just "wants to give bookstores a chance to make some money."

The eBook is "definitely going to make a big difference," said Kate Janulewicz, Indigo Bridge Books manager. "One of the trends we've seen in the past that's similar to this is the eMusic industry. The mom-and-pop record stores are less present in the community because of online buying. And there will definitely continue to be an impact on the book industry."

Everything's going digital, said Indigo owner Kim Coleman. "We can't hold back the tide anymore than the other industries could," she said. You can go with the flow of technological progress, or you can struggle futilely.

Ch. 3. (A) Print is dead; (B) Print is dying; (C) Print will be just fine

Cases can (and have) been made for all three.

Jim McKee, owner of Lee Booksellers, thinks "the book on paper is not going to disappear. People will continue to read this way."

Always?

"Well," he said, "always is a big word. But in my lifetime, in your lifetime and your children's lifetime."

McKee said the last Lee store in Lincoln has no way of judging exactly what it's losing to the eBook. If McKee's confident in the printed word, he's not so sure about the future of brick-and-mortar bookstores.

"They'll dwindle as people are more willing to buy more electronically," he said. Many independents like Lee have stayed afloat selling secondary items, like stationery and greeting cards, which have a higher markup than books.

"They said motion pictures were going to destroy the book, TV was going to destroy the book," he said. "A number of things were going to destroy the book. They all had an effect but it wasn't necessarily destruction."

Ch. 4 Observations of an eReader

Lincolnite Angela Bohling uses her iPod Touch to read books, but that doesn't mean she's done reading the old-fashioned way.

What do you like about the experience of reading on your iPod Touch vs. reading an actual book?

I like the portability, since I can just slip the iPod Touch into my pocket and carry a lot of different books with me. It's handy for times when I have a few minutes to kill. The Kindle app is nice because I can go onto Amazon and download previews and read the first couple of chapters of a book before I decide if I want to buy it or not. I like that the iPod is back-lit so I can read at night in bed or anywhere that light might be limited. It's also nice to think that I'm somehow saving a tree from becoming paper.

Would you consider buying an eBook reader like Kindle or Nook?

I have considered this option and, of the ones I've seen, I like the Sony eReader best. But the cost of these devices is just too high for me, especially since the iPod can do the same thing and I already have one.

Would you ever give up printed books altogether?

I'm not sure that I'm quite ready to give up and go all digital because there are limitations. The digital books take up so much less room, though. I have books all over, in boxes, on bookshelves. I'd be willing to go all digital if there was some guarantee that I could always have a copy.

Final thoughts on eBooks vs. real books?

About the only thing I can think is that once you start using a digital reader, you realize how you still get the same story. You do lose that simple feeling of holding a book, the smell of the pages, things like that.

Ch. 5. eBooks vs. real books: a used-bookstore owner's take

Cinnamon Dokken, A Novel Idea owner:

eReader pros

1. Great for people who travel a lot.

2. Great for people who are in the Peace Corps.

3. Great for people who are stuck in the middle of the deserts of Africa or the jungles of Guatemala. What with the dearth of bookstores there and all.

"Book" book pros

1. "They've got the history of being passed down and loved. There's a historical appeal. A soulful appeal."

2. You can share them with your friends, even if they don't have an eReader device.

3. Their art, their life, "the feel of a book and the variety. The different cover art and paper weight. I still maintain there's no substitute for holding a book in your hands."

Reach Micah Mertes at 473-7395 or mmertes@journalstar.com.