Don Walton: Voters tuned in again

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Eight weeks to go.

And guess what? 

The country is tuned in again.

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Following a marathon primary and caucus season, many Americans took some time out from the presidential race this summer to concentrate on vacations, the outdoors, kids at home, baseball, the Olympics, lots to do.

But summer is over now.

And those TV ratings from the national conventions, when John McCain, Barack Obama and Sarah Palin emerged as the newest contenders for American Idol, were encouraging.

Americans are paying attention again to this presidential race.

The unanswered question is how many of us will be attentive enough to dig below the surface of political talking points, Internet buzz  and the blizzard of 30-second half-truths to truly understand what each candidate would do as president.

We’re not going to have a clear understanding of what’s at stake, or be guided by any information within spitting distance of the truth, if we rely on the 30-second ads.

Unfortunately, most of them will be negative.  And many will be lies. 

We’ll need to go beyond them to truly understand what changes McCain would bring to Washington as president and where Obama stands on tax cuts.

OK, a few observations from a two-week sojourn to Denver and Minneapolis-St. Paul.

I came home believing both sides expect to win.

But neither is quite sure.

Republicans have become accustomed to winning these tight presidential races after eeking out a victory in 2000 and coming from behind to win in 2004.

Democrats believe their message of change combined with deep disappointment about the performance of President Bush — as measured by almost all the polls — opens their door to victory.

McCain is running largely on biography; Obama is riding a wave of personal charisma or dramatically altered priorities and policy, depending on your point of view.

So, in this clearly Democratic environment, when virtually everyone agrees there’ll be Democratic congressional gains, why is this presidential contest so close?

Obama’s relative lack of experience on the national stage?

McCain’s heroic youth?

A conservative electorate?

Race?

Dave Heineman is among those who believe the Obama campaign organization’s demonstrated skill in defeating Hillary Clinton earlier this year is a factor in play.

When the Obama team devotes resources to a congressional district in Nebraska, you begin to understand how much his campaign has  broadened the playing field and forced McCain to spend time and resources defending his own ground.

Nebraska is not a battleground state; but metropolitan Omaha’s 2nd District has been turned into a battleground district this year.

McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin solidified the conservative Republican base, which served as the bedrock of GOP presidential victories in 2000 and 2004.

Delegates in St. Paul were more wildly enthusiastic about Palin than McCain.  You name a core issue for that conservative base and Palin is there.

And you can be sure those voters will vote on Nov. 4.

Will Obama’s supporters?

They turned out in record numbers in Democratic caucus and primary states.  But Democrats voted in record numbers for Clinton too.

Do some of Clinton’s female supporters drift to McCain-Palin now?   Republicans certainly are planning on that. 

A big chunk of Obama’s supporters are young people.  New voters.  And some people who just didn’t bother to register and vote before.

The trick not only will be registering them, but getting them to vote early before election day.  You cannot count on a new voter or a previously disinterested person to show up at the polls on Nov. 4.

Minnesota is a battleground state, but Minneapolis and St. Paul belonged to the Republicans last week. 

Demonstrators provided the only competing voice — as they did when Democrats met in Denver. 

Although there were a few scattered disturbances in the Twin Cities, for the most part demonstrators expressed themselves peacefully last week. A huge march in St. Paul on the opening day of the convention was calm except for an isolated incident or two.

Later, Journal Star photographer Heidi Hoffman and I walked to the University of Minnesota campus to see what might be going on there.

Students were running, biking, strolling the campus on a warm Labor Day evening that marked the end of summer.  Classes would begin the next day.

At Coffman Memorial Union, a scattering of students sprawled in a downstairs lounge.  A couple of them sat alone working on their laptops.

Justin Berken, 25, of Green Bay, Wis., a graduate student in architecture, said he’s “a huge Obama supporter.”

Berken identified health care and the Iraq war as issues important to him.

“We’ve got to get ourselves out of the destruction of the last eight years,” he said.

Jason Loeffler, 21, of Monticello, Minn., a senior in mechanical engineering, said he supports Obama.

“I think he represents change from the last eight years of George W. Bush,” he said.

“I think we need to target tax rebates more to lower-income families who will spend that money and put it back into the economy instead of giving tax cuts to the wealthy,” Loeffler said. 

“And I was very much against the war.”

Will they vote?

Both said yes, definitely, they would.  And it seemed clear they will.

But they are an isolated glance at just one segment of the electorate.

There are students at the University of Minnesota equally devoted to McCain.

But McCain won’t be counting on them to vote as much as Obama must  rely on Loeffler and Berken.

Reach Don Walton at 473-7248 or dwalton@journalstar.com.