Low voter turnout expected for Tuesday's primary

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BY MELISSA LEE / Lincoln Journal Star

Election officials are predicting a low voter turnout for Tuesday’s primary elections.

Secretary of State John Gale said Thursday he expects 27 percent of registered voters to head to the polls, a reflection, he said, of few high-profile races in the state, a limited number of county offices on the ballot and the fact that the Nebraska presidential primaries won’t have much effect on the Republican and Democratic national conventions.

Lancaster County Election Commissioner Dave Shively, meanwhile, predicted a 22 percent voter turnout in the county, despite a surge this year in voter registration and a high number of early ballot requests.

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Wednesday was the deadline for voters to ask the election commissioner’s office to mail them early/absentee ballots. The office got more than 12,100 requests, Shively said. That’s up from 9,000 requests for the 2006 primaries and 5,000 requests in 2004, he said.

But Shively doesn’t expect the increase to lead to higher turnout. Instead, he said, the increase reflects a trend among Lancaster County residents toward early voting.

“People are finding a different way to vote,” he said. “(By voting early or absentee), they get it done and out of the way and they don’t have to think about going to the polls.

“Anyone can do it, and more and more people are taking advantage of that.”

Voters can still go to the election commissioner’s office to vote early in person.

Shively’s 22 percent voter turnout prediction is slightly below Lancaster County turnout in past presidential primary years. In 2004, nearly 26 percent of registered voters headed to the primary polls, compared with nearly 27 percent in 2000 and 28 percent in 1996.

Statewide, turnout has varied in recent primary elections. In 2006, 35 percent of registered voters turned out, compared to 21 percent in 2004.

The state and county saw boosts in voter registration before the Democratic caucus in February. Those newly minted voters may not turn out Tuesday, Shively said.

But they likely will go to the polls in November, said Neal Erickson, deputy secretary of state for elections.

“I think there has been an increase in interest in the political process,” he said. “I just don’t think it’ll necessarily be reflected in the primary. I’m much more optimistic about November.”

Meanwhile, the caucuses — and a fierce, still-undecided race for the Democratic presidential nomination — are among the likely factors that contributed to a shift in the state’s voter registration.

The secretary of state’s office said the number of Nebraska voters registered as Democrats has increased by nearly 14,000 since mid-January. The number of registered Republicans has decreased by nearly 5,000 in the same period.

For the most part, Erickson said, the shift is “natural cyclical stuff.” He noted his office constantly updates voter lists to remove names of people who have moved away or died. And Republicans still hold a significant majority over Democrats.

Overall registration has increased by nearly 7,300, to more than 1.1 million voters. Republicans account for 49 percent, Democrats for 33 percent and independents, Nebraska and Green party members for 17 percent.

Reach Melissa Lee at 473-2682 or mlee@journalstar.com.