Storm-prediction expert to speak about tornadoes

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By HILARY KINDSCHUH / Lincoln Journal Star

One of Joe Schaefer’s earliest memories is of a winter thunderstorm.

He remembers watching the lightning and listening to thunder as snow fell over Milwaukee.

“Mostly because it scared the bejabbers out of me,” Schaefer said, laughing. “That is just a truly dramatic thing when you see that.

View Slideshow

An overturned car lies beneath shredded trees in Greensburg, Kan. An F5 tornado with more than 200 mph winds swept through the town May 4, 2007, wiping homes off of their foundations and leaving wood and nails and broken bits of belongings here and there. (LJS file)

“I was fascinated.”

His fascination with weather has continued his whole life. He pursued a career in meteorology, and was named director of the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., when it was established in 1995.

On Saturday, Schaefer will review the tornadoes of 2007, including the one that destroyed Greensburg, Kan., at the Central Plains Severe Weather Symposium and WeatherFest at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

“This is pretty prestigious for us here to have somebody of his caliber,” said Ken Dewey, professor of climatology at the UNL’s School of Natural Resources and the event’s main organizer.

Schaefer also plans to talk about the strange outbreak of tornadoes this winter, including a January twister in Wisconsin. He’ll show pictures from the Wisconsin tornado, including those of damage to a frozen puddle and a frozen lake, he said.

Dewey said such global weather patterns as La Nina have affected weather this winter. La Nina is a cooling of the Pacific ocean currents moving east to west near South America that causes dry conditions in the Midwest.

Because of La Nina, tropical air was not able to reach Canada this winter, Dewey said. So as cold air blew down from Canada, warm air pushed up from the Gulf Coast. The contrasting air temperatures combined with an active jet stream to cause an unusually high number of tornadoes this winter, Dewey said.

But Schaefer said that doesn’t necessarily mean a busy tornado season this summer.

“Nature has a way of balancing itself out,” he said.

Last spring, the U.S. saw more tornado activity than usual, but it lessened after May, and there were fewer tornadoes than usual for the year overall, Schaefer said.

“Now we’re even further ahead (with the number of tornadoes) than we were (this time) last year,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if it eases off late spring or early summer.”

Schaefer paused, then said with a laugh, “I shouldn’t say that because tornadoes are what pays my salary.”

The storm prediction center where Schaefer works is responsible for forecasting and monitoring all of the severe weather in the continental U.S. mainland, apart from hurricanes.

“You have a feeling that you’re doing some good,” he said. “You’re trying to get people to pay attention to what’s happening out there, to take caution or take cover when things are occurring.”

Most tornadoes are predicted well in advance, Schaefer said.

Forecasters knew a tornado could hit Wisconsin about four or five days in advance of the January twister, he said.

“Tornadoes F2 and greater —which are fairly strong — about 95 percent of them are predicted,” Schaefer said. “We just don’t know enough to get them all.”

Every now and then a severe tornado sneaks up without detection, Schaefer said. The most recent example hit downtown Atlanta earlier this month.

The forecasters at the storm prediction center did not believe that storm system would develop into any organized activity, but they were wrong. One man is believed to have died from injuries he received during that tornado.

“When people start dying because of our mistakes, that’s definitely not good,” Schaefer said. “We’ve got to learn more.”

That’s why storm chasers serve a purpose, he said.

Storm chasers include “a big spectrum of people, from thrill seekers to scientists out taking measurements to try to determine what makes a tornado tick, why some storms present and some don’t,” Schaefer said.

But that’s not what his team does.

“Basically, when the storms are close enough to be chasing, we’re probably too busy working here to do it. We’re in the business of forecasting these things.”

When people interview for jobs at the center, they are asked if there were a tornado 50 miles away, would they rather be working or chasing the tornado, Schaefer said.

“They all lie,” he said. “Most people are smart enough to say they’d rather be working.”

Reach Hilary Kindschuh at 473-7120 or hkindschuh@journalstar.com.