In Hagel's wake, scrum for Senate seat begins

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BY DON WALTON / Lincoln Journal Star

So, can any Republican not named Chuck Hagel win a Senate seat in Nebraska?

That’s the question now.

The answer has been no for 35 years.

View Slideshow

In this 2001 file photo, then-Gov. Mike Johanns (left), Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., Omaha Mayor Hal Daub (right), Dennis Poppe, NCAA managing director for football and baseball (background) look out at the crowds of Rosenblatt Stadium. (LJS File)

Hagel’s decision not to seek re-election next year leaves Republicans heading into 2008 without their only winning Senate candidate since Carl Curtis claimed his last term in 1972.

Since then, Democrats have won 9 of 11 Senate races and snared seats opened by the retirement of incumbent senators three of four times.  The only GOP victories were scored by Hagel in 1996 and 2002.

Ah, but times have changed.

Republicans never have held such a huge voter registration advantage.  There are   202,000 more registered Republicans than registered Democrats in Nebraska today.

But there also are 187,000 independents.

And the Republican bulge did not prevent Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson from sweeping to a 164,000-vote landslide victory over GOP nominee Pete Ricketts last November.

Sort it all out and Nebraska appears headed toward a competitive Senate showdown next year if both parties can field strong candidates.

Hagel will formally announce his decision at an Omaha Press Club news conference Monday.

And then let the scrum begin.

Former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey was poised to discuss his intentions Monday after Hagel has made it official.

On the Republican side, former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, who’s also a former four-term congressman, said Saturday he’ll have something to say then.

“Out of respect for the senator, I’ll wait to let him say what he’s going to do,” Daub said.  “Then, I’ll talk about my plans.”

Daub has completed a tour of all 93 counties in preparation for a possible Senate race.

Attorney General Jon Bruning, who entered the GOP scrap prior to waiting for Hagel’s decision, said he knows he would have “faced an uphill battle” against the senator.

“Obviously, he would have been very, very formidable.  He’s a two-term incumbent with a distinguished career and an ability to raise massive amounts of money,” Bruning said.

“But I got in this race to give a voice to conservative Nebraskans.”

Bruning has been sharply critical of Hagel’s opposition to the Bush administration’s policies in Iraq and the senator’s support for immigration reform that opens a pathway to legal status for most illegal immigrants already settled in the United States.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns, a former Lincoln mayor and two-term governor, isn’t ready to discuss what he might do.

Johanns will be in Nebraska this week for appearances in Omaha and Grand Island, and will be honored by the Nebraska Republican Party at a Saturday event in Lincoln.

But Johanns, who is being wooed as a high-profile Republican challenger, is not going to talk about his future while he’s in the state, said spokeswoman Terri Teuber.

While Bruning has proved he’s a prolific vote-gatherer, the national spotlight is pointed toward a possible Kerrey-Johanns shootout.  

If that’s the end result, The Washington Post has suggested, Nebraska may field the premier Senate race in the 2008 election cycle with Republicans under siege nationally.

Hagel’s decision, The New York Times reported, “presents yet another challenge for the Republican Party in its effort to stop Democrats from extending their majority in Congress next year.”

Yet to be heard from is Columbus industrialist Tony Raimondo, who earlier signaled he’ll be in the Republican primary scrap if Hagel opts out of a bid for a third term.

Schuyler businessman Pat Flynn already has entered the GOP derby.

Kerrey is by far the leading Democratic prospect.  A former two-term senator and former governor, he has maintained a high national profile since he left the Senate to become president of New School University in New York City in 2001.

Last month, Kerrey informed university trustees he might resign and return to Nebraska to seek the Senate seat if Hagel is not a candidate for re-election.

“I believe Kerrey is going to run, and I think he’d be a formidable candidate,” former Republican State Chairman David Kramer of Omaha said Saturday.

“I think Mike Johanns would be the strongest candidate we could field,” Kramer said.  “He would afford us a tremendous opportunity to keep this seat.  I hope he runs.”

Despite opposition to Hagel from some core elements of his own party, Kramer said, he believes the senator would have won a third term if he had chosen to run.

“I think he would have been re-elected with a lot less difficulty than some people think,” said Kramer, a 2006 Republican Senate candidate.

“He’s been incredibly conscientious and always true to his convictions.  And Nebraska has a long history of electing folks who speak their mind.”

Hagel, he said, ushered in “a new period of prosperity for Republicans in Nebraska” when he broke the Democratic stranglehold on Nebraska Senate seats in 1996.

“And I think he will go down on the list of great U.S. senators who took leadership roles on issues important to Nebraska and the country.”

Reach Don Walton at 473-7248 or at dwalton@journalstar.com.