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Hispanic vote could swing elections by 2030, expert says

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By OSKAR GARCIA / The Associated Press

Friday, Oct 27, 2006 - 05:31:12 pm CDT

OMAHA — Hispanic voters will comprise a significant portion of Nebraska’s vote by 2030 and could swing an election, regardless of changes to U.S. immigration policy, according to a study released Friday.

Over that time, the number of eligible Hispanic voters in the state will quadruple and could be as much as 15 percent of the actual vote, said Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, of the Latino/Latin American Studies department at the University of Nebraska at Omaha.

Estimates for elections this November show roughly 40,000 Hispanic voters in Nebraska — about 3.2 percent of the state vote, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.

Thousands of people in Nebraska were among the millions nationwide who participated in immigration rallies this spring.

Almost two-thirds of Hispanics nationwide believe May’s immigration rallies could signal a new and lasting social movement, according to a Pew survey released in July.

“They were pretty powerful,” said Marcos E. Mora of the South Omaha Arts Institute, a nonprofit that specializes in teaching Hispanic art and music.

“We’re at a political time right now with elections, and I think a lot of people are scared, but they need to be educated and look at doing what is the right thing,” Mora said.

Activists who organized immigration rallies in Omaha also have organized drives to register Hispanic voters, he said.

The Hispanic population in Nebraska will triple by 2030 because of births, including those to immigrant parents, Benjamin-Alvarado said.

That significant population change would raise the share of eligible voters who are Hispanic.

Now, 47 percent of the state’s Hispanics are U.S. citizens, Benjamin-Alvarado said.

There are more than 17 million eligible Hispanic voters in the U.S., according to Pew. If Hispanics register for this election at the same rate as 2004, there would be 10 million registered Hispanic voters nationwide — 58 percent of eligible Hispanics.

In Nebraska, rising numbers of Hispanic voters that could eventually swing close elections may force candidates to change campaign strategies, Benjamin-Alvarado said.

“How those politicians respond to the resolution of those particular issues (such as immigration) is going to speak volumes to how the Latinos embrace those people, those candidates,” Benjamin-Alvarado said. “It’s going to be important, and probably sooner than later.”

Mora said the immigration issue has had other effects locally that could influence elections.

“I think the rally also sparked a lot of discrimination and prejudice,” Mora said. “I think that’s a big backlash that’s very unfortunate.”

That perception of discrimination against Mexican-Americans and Hispanics from other countries could drive Hispanic voters to become a voting bloc, Benjamin-Alvarado said.

“A lot of the anti-immigrant forces are also painting all Latinos with the same brush,” Benjamin-Alvarado said. “That has the possibility then, of beginning to bring people together who haven’t been together in the past.”


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memo wrote on July 9, 2007 12:17 am:
" A SURGE IN APPLICATIONS FOR CITIZENSHIP Voter registration is growing among Hispanics as more become citizens and more become enraged at anti-immigrant policies. JUST A THOUGHT Several decades ago, immigrants from Hispanic origin came to the USA. They didn’t bother to participate in politics. They came to work and nothing else. Why to bother if the country was going OK. They didn’t speak the language very well and they thought let’s leave politics in the hands of those who are in power. Working and keeping a job was their main goal. Many even didn’t bother to change their immigrant status as residents. But a couple of years ago, particularly this year, something happened. Because they can not be recognized or distinguished by appearance, with the so called illegals, they started to realize that they had to become citizens to obtain a higher level of protection. They realized that they were being demonized. Many of them are coming to vote for the first time. Some of this population belongs to the group that came with the amnesty offered by President Reagan in 1986-1988. They too started to become citizens. There is no way that anyone can identify an illegal alien just by looking at them. You cannot tell who is an American citizen just by looking. Latino voters are tired of getting treated as something less than real Americans. They could be legally here; they could have lived in the U.S. for generations. The only marker is skin color. The effect of the immigration debate on many Latino voters has been to make them feel like their Americanness is being questioned, even if they have been here for many generations. The rampant xenophobia encased in fear of terrorism has made it critical for the legal immigrants, once illegal, to acquire the status that would grant them immunity from narrow legal persecution. However, it is not strange that in this xenophobic wave these people are feeling being threatened and insulted.. In the meantime, the Republicans had their chance for about 6 years to make a statement that the republican party would take care of the American people and they really showed they don't care by their non-actions and clearly directed actions against inmigrants. Republicans have been filibustering everything that comes up in the Senate. It is true that some Democrats such as Jim Webb, Jon Tester and Claire McCaskill vote with the majority of Republicans to kill the Senate immigration compromise, without offering a realistic and achievable alternative that would establish a more humane policy. But, it is also undeniable that the most vicious, the most wretched, the most offensive, the most revolting, the most ruthless, the most vilifying, the most repulsive attacks have come and are still coming from Republicans. Just a few examples to illustrate it. 1) Sensenbrenner wanted the criminalization of these people. 2) Newt Gingrich, Former House speaker, who coined Spanish as the Language of the gheto 3) Fred Thompson just slammed Cubans, suggesting that they come to America not in search of freedom, but to bring “suitcase bombs.” 4) Dana Rohrbach in his speeches is warning the end of America as we know it. 5) Tancredo, his motto"a scourge that threatens the very future of our nation." 6) J.D Hayworth, not reelected, but still instilling hate, no comments. The list goes on and on.. . I rest my case. One thing is certain, the Republicans were mum on all issues with immigration reform as just one of them. They controlled the white house and congress. If there is anytime in which a party is able to get things done, it's when they don't have anyone to really interfere. Immigration was just one of them. Therefore, it seems to me that the most recalcitrant and extreme positions are from Republicans, where no room is for middle ground. This whole episode has branded the Republicans as the anti-inmigrant party. So Republicans have done this at a national level. Pretty transparent move they did, and now the immigrant population, Irish, Phillipinos and many other immigrants, particularly Hispanics, are aware of this issue. At any rate, this is the beginning of the legal immigrant backlash directed against the Republican Party for their position on the immigration bill. By your actions, you shall be judged.! "

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