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L. Kent Wolgamott: Executives pin hopes on 'Da Vinci', 'Hedge'

Friday, May 19, 2006 - 11:11:25 am CDT

Welcome to the biggest movie weekend of the summer. At least that’s the hope of film studios and exhibitors who have their fingers crossed that the one-two punch of “The Da Vinci Code” and “Over the Hedge” will start box office cash registers ringing later today and keep them going through Sunday night and into the next week and weekend.

“The Da Vinci Code” is one of those “can’t-miss” pictures. Dan Brown’s book on which the movie is based has sold 40 million copies in hardcover and another 1.5 million in its first month in paperback release. With multiple readers of the same copy, it’s a fair estimate that somewhere around 50 million people have read the book.

If half of those who have read the book go to the movie, the box office take would be upward of $200 million, a mega hit. If all 50 million go — not likely, but worth considering — that number heads toward $400 million. Those numbers, of course, will be augmented by those of us who haven’t read the book but end up seeing the movie.

To put things in perspective, “Titanic” is the all-time box office champion, taking in $600 million in North America. “Star Wars” is second at $460 million and “Shrek 2” comes in third at $436 million.

The latter number is what’s giving the movie business the hope of a record-breaking weekend. “Over the Hedge” comes from DreamWorks, the studio that made “Shrek” and “Shrek 2.”

While this tale of woodland animals invading suburbia isn’t likely to run into the rarified $250 million range like the “Shrek” films, it’s another near lock, likely doing well over $100 million and probably coming close to $200 million.

The real hope, however, is that “The Da Vinci Code,” “Over the Hedge” and the summer kickoff film, “Mission: Impossible III,” will start moviegoing patterns that last through the summer.

It’s a truism in the movie business that once people start going to films that entertain them, they will regularly return to see more pictures. But if the ultra-hyped movies don’t deliver, moviegoers will be back on the couch the next weekend and for months to come.

That’s why at a seminar last month a Warner Bros. representative talked about how he hoped big summer films from other studios would do well. And you can see why by looking at the studios behind the summer movies.

“Mission: Impossible III” was released by Paramount Pictures. “Poseidon,” which was a disappointment on its opening weekend, comes from Warner. Sony is releasing “The Da Vinci Code.” Next weekend’s big movie, “X-Men: The Last Stand,” is a 20th Century Fox release. “The Break-up” on June 2 comes from Universal, and on June 9 it’s Disney’s turn with “Cars.”

Then that cycle starts again.

I’m guessing that summer 2006 will easily top the disappointing summer 2005 at the box office. But I’m much more interested in another comparison.

“The Passion of the Christ,” Mel Gibson’s controversial depiction of the final hours of the life of Jesus, brought tens of thousands of people who generally don’t go to movies to theaters. The movie’s $370 million gross puts it at No. 10 on the all-time box office list and makes it the highest-ranked R-rated film ever.

It will be instructive to see where “The Da Vinci Code” winds up when its run ends late this summer. In many ways, “The Da Vinci Code” is the polar opposite of “The Passion of the Christ,” drawing criticism from churches and even a warning from the Lincoln Catholic diocese that seeing the film is a mortal sin. Those condemnations, of course, have come before anyone saw the movie.

All the fuss over “The Da Vinci Code” will only help its box office — in the words of Douglas Theatre Co. president David Livingston at the seminar: “When has controversy ever been bad for business?”

Of course, no box office discussion is ever directly based on the quality of the movies. “The Da Vinci Code” will make $50 or $60 million this weekend, whether or not it is actually good. But the better it is, the more people will come.

At least that’s the hope of the exhibitors and studios who are poised for a huge weekend that they hope will kick-start a rebound for their business. I’m guessing they’re going to be pretty happy come the end of the summer. But we’ll see.

Reach L. Kent Wolgamott at 473-7244 or kwolgamott@journalstar.com.