Every day through Dec. 24, the Journal Star features sections will offer tips, information and other guidance to help you get through the holiday season. Want to discuss your Black Friday tips? Click here to go to our forums.

Day one: Black Friday Tips

Black Friday shoppers will find bigger crowds and more bargain hunters than in past years.

That's the forecast from national surveys on the retail pulse of America.

A record high of 16 percent of shoppers say they will start holiday shopping on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. That's up from 10 percent in 2008 and 2007, and tops the 13 percent in 2006, according to a survey by the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs.

This year, it's not so much about must-have items, but prices too good to pass up.

The National Retail Federation calls it the holiday season of the serious bargain hunter. Sixty-five percent of Americans say the state of the economy has altered their holiday spending, and 84 percent say overall they will spend less than last year, according to a survey for the National Retail Federation.

Purchases will be driven by price comparisons, discounts and sales. In fact, more than half of shoppers said price was the most important factor in determining where to shop and what to shop for, the NRF found. That's the largest percent in five years.

And 11.4 percent of Americans say they will shop resale and thrift shops for holiday items.

National retail gurus also say this year's shoppers will need to change their thinking.

Good bargains will appear earlier rather than later. Those who wait to the last minute will not only miss out on deals, but can miss out on the purchase altogether.

Inventory levels are lower this year - up to 30 percent lower - according to retail watchers. And because of lower inventories, retailers are less worried about getting stuck with merchandise at the end of the holiday season, which translates into fewer promotional deals.

In a NRF survey of online-only retailers, 41 percent indicated they had lower inventory levels this holiday season, and 34 percent said they would offer discounts earlier this year; 30 percent said free shipping offers would start earlier.

"In anticipation of weak demand, many retailers scaled back on inventory levels to prevent unplanned markdowns at the end of the season," said Tracy Mullin, NRF president and CEO. "Once the most popular items are gone, retailers won't have anywhere to get them, so if there was every a holiday season to buy early, this is it."

Other NRF survey findings:

Spending less. Americans on average will spend $682.74 on the holidays this year. That's down $22 from last year and down $80.66 from 2007, which saw the highest holiday spending in the past seven years.

Where are we cutting costs? Gifts. Americans on average will spend $387.06 on family gifts (down 2 percent), $66.77 on friends (down 17 percent) and $19.26 on co-workers (down 15 percent).

Where are we planning to spend a little more? Holiday decorations ($40.75), greeting cards and postage ($26.77), and candy and food ($90.26).

Where are we shopping? Discount stores (70.1 percent), department stores (55.8 percent), clothing/accessories store (33.8 percent) and electronics store (31.8 percent).

Online shopping losing some luster? This year, fewer people plan to shop online -- 42.4 percent, compared to 44.2 percent in 2008, and 47 percent in 2006. And those who plan to shop online say the bulk of their purchases will be made in person. More than one-fifth of those surveyed have no plans to shop online; 21.2 percent say they will do up to one-quarter of their shopping online; and 20.7 percent said they will do up to half of their shopping via the Internet.

Goodbye frivolous, hello practical and useful. In light of the economy, 36 percent of those surveyed said they plan to buy more practical gifts or turn necessity items into gifts. Sixteen percent said they would make more gifts this year.

Top desired items? Nearly half of Americans say they want clothing/accessories, and books, CDs, DVDs and video games. Fifty-five percent say "show me the money" via gift cards and gift certificates.

Black Friday shopping tips

Ready, set shop!

With more shoppers than ever before expected to hit the stores on Black Friday, you will need to be more prepared than ever to snag those bargains fast.

Good thing you have three days to plan your attack. Here's some help:

1. Study the ads. Snoop around online. Jot down what stores have the best prices on the items you want.

2. Doublecheck sales fliers. Is the deal an "early bird"-only special, or an all-weekend discount? Make early-bird deals a Black Friday morning priority.

3. Read the fine print for any purchasing limits. Some ads will indicate the minimum number of a certain item the store will have, which can help you decide if it is worth the effort to try for it.

4. Check out the stores. Know where the items you want will be.

5. Plot your course. Which stores first? Which deals first?

6. Arm yourself with a budget and a shopping list. Jot down who gets what gift, where you're getting it, and how much you are planning to spend.

7. Do some research. Is it a good deal or a stripped-down version that will cost you more in the end?

8. Consider recruiting a Black Friday team. Give each person an area or a specific store to shop for early-morning deals.

9. Set out your shopping uniform the night before. You'll need comfy shoes, layers of clothes that can be easily shed and a fanny pack to hold money and other shopping essentials. Remember to have a backup payment plan just in case your credit card is rejected.

10. Set several wakeup alarms. Better yet, pull an all-nighter with your fellow shoppers. Why chance it? JC Penney, Kohl's and Younkers will open at 4 a.m.; Toys R Us, ShopKo, Best Buy and Target will open at 5 a.m. Walmart will be open 24 hours, but the doorbusters will start at 5 a.m.

11. Drink lots of coffee -- enough to function, but not so much you have to run to a bathroom.

12. Carry some snacks. You will need energy and your wits.

13. Shop gladiator style. "Think of this day as the Olympics of shopping," says Freeman Hall, author of "Retail Hell -- How I Sold My Soul to the Store, Confessions of a Tortured Sales Associate." "Leave uninterested spouses and children at home, and bring teenagers who can run fast."

14. Just park it. Don't waste precious time looking for a good parking space. Another alternative: Recruit someone to drop you off and pick you up.

15. Breathe deeply. Be calm. When the store doors open, enter in an orderly way. If the crowd gets out of control, make your way to the edge, where the flow is lighter, Hall said.

16. Expect to be touched, pushed or even shoved. Super sales can bring out the worst in people.

17. Stay Black Friday focused. Shop the advertised necessities, Hall said. Things that aren't on sale or aren't really considered hot items will probably still be there tomorrow.

18. If you can, forgo the shopping cart. Those darn carts create a horrendous bottleneck, which will slow you and everyone else down.

19. If you change your mind on an item, put it back where it belongs.

20. Make sure you have everything you want before you get in the checkout line.

21. Take the ads with you. Some stores price-match the advertised price of another store. Also, it never hurts to doublecheck the ads.

22. Leave your diva at the door, Hall said. Kindness and a smile go along way -- with sales associates and other shoppers.

23. Have fun.

— Sources: Freeman Hall, author of “Retail Hell — How I Sold My Soul to the Store, Confessions of a Tortured Sales Associate“; and Coupon Sherpa founders Luke and Jesse Knowles.

Reach Erin Andersen at 473-7217 or eandersen@journalstar.com.